Whether you’ve been around the sports betting game for a while, or you’re new and following the advice on this site, chances are you’ve been on sites like Covers.com while researching upcoming games. He’s probably also noticed the little “consensus” fact next to each game, which tells him which team the public thinks will win. You might see a team have a 70% public opinion and feel like that might be a good bet for you. While nothing is certain in the world of sports betting, this sentiment is generally incorrect.
If the public always won…
One of the most important concepts to take into account when betting on sports is this: if the public won more than they lost, sports betting houses would cease to exist. That’s oversimplifying things a bit, of course, but generally speaking it’s a true statement. Casinos and sportsbooks are in business to make money, lots of money. If they are losing money in a particular area, they will change the rules or stop offering it altogether. Since the world of online sportsbooks is alive and thriving, it is safe to assume that they are making money and that in the long run the general public loses their money.
I’ve been telling people to subscribe to the reverse public opinion theory for years. As is the case with much of the advice I’ve offered here at SportBooksReview, I’m not suggesting that people blindly bet against the team with the most public support every night, just keep that in mind when doing your research. There are some situations where looking at the public consensus and comparing it to the movement of the line can be very revealing, and these are the situations where you can jump.
Public Consensus and Line Movement
As we discussed in our line move article, there are a number of factors that could cause sportsbooks to move the line. One of those factors is that one team bets decidedly more money than the other, creating a scenario where the books would lose a large amount of money if one team wins. The books would rather have a good amount of money wagered on both sides of a game so that no matter which team wins, they will come out on top because of the juice (rookies: bet $110 to win $100, the $10 is the juice). That’s why it’s a good idea to take a quick look at the consensus percentages along with the line movement for the games you want to bet on; sometimes there can be very useful hidden information to give you an advantage.
When doing your research, if you see a game where the crowd is heavily betting on one team, say 70% or more, but the line didn’t move from its original number, then you have to ask yourself why. If the public is betting most of their money on one team, but the books aren’t moving the numbers to attract betters for the other team, then it’s telling you something. Either the books are confident that the public will lose, or the big money gamblers have already placed their bets on the other team. Either way, this is a huge red flag. Again, don’t blindly bet your money on this strategy, but there will be situations where these numbers are too strong to ignore.
Summary
Generally speaking, I like to fade the public, especially when there is a strong public consensus that goes for the underdog in a game. As you probably already know, the common theme of my articles is research – we’re talking about your money here, so it’s extremely important that you do everything you can to find an edge before placing your bet. As is the case with many of my tips, this is not meant to be a one-size-fits-all strategy, but rather part of a larger overall strategy of doing your homework and ultimately finding solid opportunities to make money. If you follow the advice I have offered in this article and combine it with some of my other strategies, you will make money; the only question is: how much?
Best of luck and please play responsibly!
–ajec
